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The weather cell of the Seungjeongwon Ilgishare
Overlap with modern observations, 1907–1910
On the 1,052 days from the start of KMA Seoul (108) daily data (1907-10-01) to the diary's last day (1910-08-29): agreement between observed rain, snow and cloud cover and the cell's flags.
21%of 403 observed rain days carry 雨, 1907–1910
Key point
On the 1,052 days overlapping KMA observations (1907–1910) only 21% of observed rain days carry 雨, and only 24% of '晴'-only days have mean cloud cover ≤ 2.5 tenths. In its last years the cell diverges widely from observation; whether that is recording practice or site difference, this comparison alone cannot tell.
- Formula
- Observed rain = daily precipitation > 0 or '비' (rain) in the phenomena field; snow = '눈' (snow) in phenomena (snow-depth columns are empty in these years); clear = mean cloud cover ≤ 2.5 tenths, cloudy ≥ 7.5. Agreement, recall and precision with Wilson 95% intervals.
- How to read it
- Low agreement does not mean the station was wrong. In the last years of the Korean Empire the cell diverges widely from observation, and this comparison alone cannot tell whether the cause is recording practice or the distance between station and palace. The cell of this period is hard to use as climate data on its own.
- Caveats
- The 1,052 days come from one period and cannot be generalized to earlier years. The station (Yeonhwabang) and the palace are different points inside the walled city; this comparison alone cannot tell recording practice from site difference as the cause of the low agreement.
- External check
- KMA ASOS Seoul 108 daily data (KOGL Type 1).
- Reliability card
- externalExternal match — agreement with other datasets and observations
Overlapping days: 1,052. Rain: agreement 69.8% (95% 66.9%–72.5%), recall of observed rain days 21.1%, precision of the cell's 雨 100%. Clear: of 869 '晴'-only days, 24.2% had cloud cover ≤ 2.5.
| Comparison | Days | Agreement | 95% lo | 95% hi | Observed + | Cell + | Recall | Precision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rain ↔ observed rain | 1,052 | 69.8% | 66.9% | 72.5% | 403 | 85 | 21.1% | 100.0% |
| snow ↔ observed snow | 1,052 | 91.9% | 90.1% | 93.4% | 93 | 8 | 8.6% | 100.0% |
| 晴 only ↔ cloud ≤2.5 | 1,052 | 37.0% | 34.1% | 39.9% | 214 | 869 | 98.1% | 24.2% |
| cloudy ↔ cloud ≥7.5 | 1,052 | 70.7% | 67.9% | 73.4% | 335 | 91 | 17.6% | 64.8% |